The U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), experienced a decline in June, reaching 3.0% on a year-over-year basis.
This drop from May’s 4.0% exceeded expectations of a dip to 3.1%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2% in June, surpassing May’s 0.1% and falling short of the anticipated 0.3%.
Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, decreased to 4.8% from the previous 5.3%, meeting expectations for a 5.0% decrease. The monthly core CPI was 0.2% in June, compared to May’s 0.4% and forecasts of 0.3%.
The price of bitcoin (BTC) experienced a modest increase to $30,900 following the release of the report. The latest data indicates a continued decline in headline inflation, with June’s 3% marking a decrease from the 2022 peak of 9.1%.
Of significance to Federal Reserve policymakers is the shift in the core rate of inflation, which dropped to 4.8% from 5.3% after consistently remaining above 5% this year.
Despite the observed decline in inflation rates, both markets and the Federal Reserve anticipate another rate hike during the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this month.
Recent statements from Fed officials indicate a likelihood of an interest rate increase. The CME’s FedWatch tool currently indicates a 91.1% probability of the FOMC implementing a rate hike at the July 25-26 meeting.